Simple forecast builder
ProblemTeams need a forecast by Friday and either guess or overbuild a model.
Monthly orders Oct 2025–Sep 2026, forecast Oct–Dec 2026
History: +3% a month, with a Diwali spike (Oct–Nov ≈ 1.4× normal).
Method: seasonal naive × trend — simple and explainable.
Base Nov 2026: 18,900 · low 16,800 · high 21,000
Immediate resultA transparent forecast with method, formulas, base, high and low cases.


